地理距离影响民间借贷违约风险的实证研究Empirical study on geographic distance affecting default risk of private loans
林丽琼;吴敬伟;赵一萌;罗炜琳;刘松涛;
摘要(Abstract):
随着民间借贷活动范围扩大,纠纷明显增加,民间借贷风险受到广泛关注。通过构建多元线性回归模型,利用240个民间借贷纠纷案件的调查数据,探讨了地理距离对民间借贷违约风险的影响。研究结果表明,地理距离显著增加民间借贷违约风险:地理距离对月利率2%以下借贷的违约风险影响程度高于月利率2%及以上的借贷,对本金100万元以下借贷的违约风险影响程度高于本金100万元及以上的借贷。建议鼓励和发展近距离或依托熟人关系的民间借贷,建立依托地缘、血缘或亲缘等关系的借贷监督和社会惩罚机制。
关键词(KeyWords): 地理距离;民间借贷;违约
基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CGL022);; 福建省科技厅软科学重点项目(2016R0059);; 2015年度福建省高等学校新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目
作者(Author): 林丽琼;吴敬伟;赵一萌;罗炜琳;刘松涛;
Email:
DOI: 10.13322/j.cnki.fjsk.2017.04.005
参考文献(References):
- [1]何丰伦,郑良,李劲峰.民间借贷地下运转隐患丛生:资金断裂,老板频跑路[EB/OL].(2014-09-22)[2016-12-20].http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/bank/bank_hydt/20140922/014520373196.shtml.
- [2]岳彩申.民间借贷的激励性法律规制[J].中国社会科学,2013(10):121-139,207.
- [3]DONG Y,MA H.The analysis of informal credit behavior in Hui Autonomous Prefecture of Linxia:the investigation based on Hui Autonomous Prefecture of Linxia China[J].International Journal of Financial Research,2014,5(3):167-175.
- [4]佟季.对全国法院近五年审理民间借贷案件的数据分析[EB/OL].(2014-02-19)[2016-12-20].http://www.legaldaily.com.cn/Court/content/2014-02/19/content_5287641.htm?node=53967.
- [5]佚名.周强:去年审结民间借贷案件142万件,标的额8207.5亿元[EB/OL].(2016-03-13)[2016-12-20].http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/2016-03-13/doc-ifxqhfvp0870721.shtml.
- [6]PETERSENE M A.Information:Hard and Soft[EB/OL].[2016-12-20].https://wenku.baidu.com/view/0c94673d be1e650e53ea9916.html.
- [7]DEGRYSE H,CERQUEIRO G,ONGENA S.Distance,bank organizational structure,and credit[EB/OL].[2016-12-20].http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri:(66fde2eca2a77f541a5dccc46bed365c)&filter=sc_long_sign&sc_ks_para=q%3DDistance%2C+Bank+Organizational+Structure%2C+and+Credit&tn=SE_baiduxueshu_c1gjeupa&ie=utf-8&sc_us=14306384696818974269.
- [8]HOFF K,STIGLITZ J E.Introduction:imperfect information and rural credit markets:puzzles and policy perspectives[J].The World Bank Economic Review,1990,4(3):235-250.
- [9]TANG S.Informal credit markets and economic development in Taiwan[J].World Development,1995,23(5):845-855.
- [10]刘民权,徐忠,俞建拖.信贷市场中的非正规金融[J].世界经济,2003(7):61-73,80.
- [11]林毅夫,孙希芳.信息、非正规金融与中小企业融资[J].经济研究,2005(7):35-44.
- [12]张雪春,徐忠,秦朵.民间借贷利率与民间资本的出路:温州案例[J].金融研究,2013(3):1-14.
- [13]BERGER A N,DEYOUNG R.The effects of geographic expansion on bank efficiency[J].Journal of Financial Services Research,2001,19(23):163-184.
- [14]CARLING K,LUNDBERG S.Asymmetric information and distance:an empirical assessment of geographical credit rationing[J].Journal of Economics and Business,2005,57(1):39-59.
- [15]KARLAN D S.Social connections and group banking[J].The Economic Journal,2005,117(517):52-84.
- [16]AGARWAL S,HAUSWALD R.Distance and private information in lending[J].Review of Financial Studies,2010,23(7):2757-2788.
- [17]DEYOUNG R,GLENNON D,NIGRO P.Borrower-lender distance,credit scoring,and loan performance:evidence from informational-opaque small business borrowers[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,2008,17(1):113-143.
- [18]MILANI C.Borrower-lender distance and loan default rates:macro evidence from the Italian local markets[J].Journal of Economics and Business,2014,71(1):1-21.
- [19]OKE J T O,ADEYEMO R,AGBONLAHOR M U.An empirical analysis of microcredit repayment in southwestern Nigeria[J].Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment,2007,16(4):37-55..
- [20]ROSLAN A H,KARIM M Z A.Determinants of microcredit repayment in Malaysia:the case of Agrobank[J].Humanity and Social Sciences Journal,2009,4(1):45-52.
- [21]PEDROSA J,DO Q T.Geographic distance and credit market access in niger[J].African Development Review,2011,23(3):289-299.
- [22]PRESBITERO A F,RABELLOTTI R.Geographical distance and moral hazard in microcredit:evidence from Colombia[J].Journal of International Development,2014,26(1):91-108.
- [23]LAI G,WONG O.The tie effect on information dissemination:the spread of a commercial rumor in Hong Kong[J].Social Networks,2002,24(1):49-75.
- [24]AGRAWAL A,CATALINI C,GOLDFARB A.The geography of crowdfunding[EB/OL].(2010-10-01)[2016-12-20].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228234410_The_Geography_of_Crowdfunding.
- [25]AGRAWAL A,CATALINI C,GOLDFARB A.Some simple economics of crowdfunding[J].Innovation Policy and the Economy,2014,14(1):63-97.
- [26]COTUGNO M,MONFERRA S,SAMPAGNARO G.Relationship lending,hierarchical distance and credit tightening:evidence from the financial crisis[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2013,37(5):1372-1385.
- [27]胡必亮.村庄信任与标会[J].经济研究,2004(10):115-125.
- [28]AYYAGARI M,DEMIRGUC K A,MAKSIMOVIC V.Formal versus informal finance:evidence from China[J].Review of Financial Studies,2010,23(8):3048-3097.
- [29]KARAIVANOV A,KESSLER A.A friend in need is a friend indeed:theory and evidence on the disadvantages of informal loans[EB/OL].(2014-02-04)[2016-12-20].https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259467698_A_Friend_in_Need_is_a_Friend_Indeed_Theory_and_Evidence_on_the_Dis Advantages_of_Informal_Loans.
- [30]KARLAN D,MOBIUS M,ROSENBLAT T,et al.Trust and social collateral[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2009,124(3):1307-1361.
- [31]DEGRYSE H,ONGENA S.Distance,lending relationships and competition[J].The Journal of Finance,2005,17(1):231-266.
- [32]边燕杰,张文宏.经济体制、社会网络与职业流动[J].中国社会科学,2001(2):77-89,206.
- [33]FAN Y.Questioning Guanxi:definition,classification and implications[J].International Business Review,2002,11(5):543-561.
- [34]GUTHRIE D.The declining significance of Guanxi in China's economic transition[J].The China Quarterly,1998(154):254-282.
- [35]DUARTE J,SIEGEL S,YOUNG L.Trust and credit:the role of appearance in Peer-to-Peer lending[J].Review of Financial Studies,2012,25(8):2455-2483.
- [36]LARRIMORE L,JIANG L,LARRIMORE J,et al.Peer to Peer lending:the relationship between language features,trust worthiness and persuasion success[J].Journal of Applied Communication Research,2011,39(1):19-37.
- [37]QIU J,LIN Z,LUO B.Effects of borrower defined conditions in the online Peer-to-Peer lending market[J].Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing,2012,108(3):167-179.
- [38]GALANK J,SMALL D,STEPHEN A T.Microfinance decision making:a field study of prosocial lending[J].Journal of Marketing Research,2011,47(4):130-137.
- [39]GONZALEZ L,LOUREIRO Y.When can a photo increase credit?The impact of lender and borrower profiles on online Peer-to-Peer loans[J].Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance,2014(2):44-58.
- [40]曹典,岳德亮.温州拟对大额民间借贷强制备案[EB/OL].(2013-09-27)[2016-12-20].http://finance.china.com.cn/roll/20130927/1844104.shtml.
- [41]何金,陈文经.福建省首家民间借贷登记公司在晋江成立[EB/OL].(2013-12-04)[2016-12-20].http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/hqcj/xfly/2013-12-04/content_10731863.html.